Malik Willis could cash in big this offseason — and the story is more compelling than you might expect. Four years ago, Willis entered the draft touted as a potential No. 1 quarterback, but the hype didn’t pan out as hoped.
Selected at No. 86, he was the third quarterback drafted, after Kenny Pickett and Desmond Ridder. His time in Tennessee never clicked, and he became expendable after two seasons. The Packers traded for him with a seventh‑round pick just before the 2024 season, signaling a fresh start.
Over the last two years, Willis has operated mainly as Jordan Love’s clear understudy, but he hasn’t let limited reps go to waste. In 11 games with four starts for Green Bay, he completed 70 of 89 passes (a pristine 78.6% completion rate) for 972 yards, averaging 10.92 yards per attempt, with six touchdowns and zero interceptions. His passer rating sits at 134.64. He’s also racked up 261 rushing yards on 42 carries (6.2 yards per carry) and three rushing touchdowns.
Yes, the sample size is small. Still, the impact has been meaningful. And now, he’s entering free agency in less than three weeks.
Where Willis lands and what he earns has quickly become one of the more intriguing questions of this cycle. The upcoming class of free‑agent quarterbacks includes heavyweights like Aaron Rodgers and Daniel Jones. One is 42 years old, the other recovering from a torn Achilles, and both are generally expected to return to their current teams (Steelers and Colts, respectively).
Other notable veteran options on the market include Russell Wilson, Marcus Mariota, Joe Flacco, Tyrod Taylor, Kenny Pickett, Zach Wilson, and Jimmy Garoppolo.
With Kirk Cousins’ contract adjustment signaling a likelihood of release in mid‑March, he’s effectively a free agent. Players such as Kyler Murray and Tua Tagovailoa could also be released unless trades materialize. The Jets could move on from Justin Fields, and Mac Jones could surface as a trade target if the 49ers entertain moving him (though public posturing suggests otherwise).
Then there’s Geno Smith, who already has $18.5 million guaranteed for 2026 from the Raiders, with an additional $8 million vesting on the third day of the 2026 league year. He could be traded or cut, and the Raiders might keep him as a bridge to Fernando Mendoza if they pivot to a first‑overall pick in the draft.
Willis’s numbers aren’t in dispute. The bigger question is whether he’s ready to be a full‑time starter and whether a team is prepared to offer him a starter‑level contract.
As for that contract, the range is wide. The ceiling for starter deals commonly runs around $60 million per year, while the floor for established veterans has hovered around the $10–11 million mark in recent years. Compare recent anchors: Russell Wilson’s $10.5 million average on a deal that included limited playing time; Justin Fields’ case with a $20 million average and $30 million guaranteed on a two‑year pact (though he later faced a benching); Sam Darnold’s $33.5 million per year on a three‑year Seattle offer that has proven unexpectedly solid in hindsight. Some argue a one‑year deal, like Jones’ in Indy, might have been wiser for Darnold, but options were limited.
So where does Willis fit? Much depends on how many teams pursue him. The Dolphins, now run by two former Packers executives, could be a prime landing spot if they can fit Willis into their cap amid Tua’s contract. The Cardinals could also make sense, given Matt LaFleur’s brother Mike is the head coach there.
The Steelers could be in the picture, though they may wait on Rodgers’ decision first, potentially delaying their early‑window involvement. The Vikings will be seeking a veteran to compete with their younger options. And don’t overlook the Ravens: if they move on from Lamar Jackson, they’ll need a quarterback too.
Other teams that could be in the market for a veteran passer include the Jets, Browns, Colts (if Jones leaves), and Falcons.
Somebody is bound to want Willis. The greater the demand, the higher his price will go.
Things will pick up speed next week in Indianapolis, where teams convene with agents in a veritable free‑agency carnival—an annual exchange full of strategic posturing and informal tampering that operates with limited traceability.
Our educated guess: Willis could land somewhere in the $20–$30 million per year range, unless a feverish bidding surge pushes him higher. If the market truly heats up, a top‑tier rush could push him toward $35–$40 million. Even at $40 million, you’re looking at roughly two‑thirds of the current quarterback market ceiling.
Another possibility: a one‑year deal that minimizes long‑term risk but preserves future leverage for 2027, perhaps with a no‑tag clause that would be even more enticing if it could be arranged (though that’s a tall order).
Regardless of the exact path, this is a storyline that deserves more attention. Willis showed enough as a part‑time contributor to raise the possibility of becoming a franchise quarterback if he gets a full‑time shot.
His performances suggest more than mere competence; they hint at a potential breakout star. In a league where true franchise quarterbacks are rare, every team should be weighing whether Willis could be the rare quarterback who ascends to elite status with the right opportunity.
